This Week's Herman Trend Alert Navigating the Next Year

The Herman Trend Alert May 28, 2008 The Economy and Job Creation, What's Really Happening On a number of occasions, we have decried the fact that "bad news sells". In spite of the fact that the press wants us to believe that the economy is in very bad shape to sell media, the United States Commerce Department reported the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) actually grew in the first quarter of 2008 at a rate of 0.6 percent. While that level is not particularly impressive, the definition of recession is an economy with two consecutive quarters of decline in the GDP. Since the economy actually grew in the first quarter, the United States is NOT in a recession. America is certainly experiencing an economically stressed period associated with the theft, fraud, and corruption connected to the sub-prime debacle. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll employment decreased in April by 20,000. Job losses continued in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade, while employment in healthcare, professional and technical services increased. However, we must also add to the mix some good financial news: the ADP National Employment Report, released recently, stated non-farm private employment actually increased 10,000 from March to April 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis. According to this report, employment in the service sector of the economy grew by 64,000 jobs, while employment in the manufacturing sector declined by 54,000 jobs. And the unemployment rate declined 0.5 percent. Large businesses, those with 500 or more workers, saw employment turned down by 18,000, while medium-size companies, those between 50 and 499 workers declined by 14,000. Conversely and most importantly, employment among small-size businesses, those with fewer than 50 workers, grew by 42,000 during the same month. The ADP report reflected the two hit hardest sectors of the economy by recent problems in mortgage markets have been residential construction (including those who sell to contractors and homeowners) and financial activities related to home sales and mortgage lending. The ADP report also indicated that employment in the financial activities sector advanced by 2,000 jobs for the month. The moral of this story (to quote Gilbert & Sullivan): "Things are seldom what they seem." © Copyright 1998-2008 by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." RESOLVE TO ADDRESS EMPLOYEE TURNOVER IN 2009 If you knew just how much money turnover is costing your company, you would have handled it ages ago! Turnover costs A LOT and it comes right off the bottom line. Let The Herman Group and its team of very experienced consultants help you address your turnover issues right away. We have an impressive track record and stand ready to help you. Call Carol at 800-227-3566; international, call 336-210-3547 for a no-obligation conference call. EMPLOYEE RETENTION BEGINS WITH GOOD SELECTION If you are not using pre-employment assessments, you are flying without radar---not very smart in today's highly competitive environment. Let us help you better understand your candidates and your employees. In less than 30 minutes, you will know if they can do the job (abilities); their work behaviors, even their personality and attitudes (like integrity & ethics), and those can't be trained. It's very cost effective, too! For more information, contact Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail assessments@hermangroup.com. Validated for many countries and cultures. We offer in-depth help with job descriptions, too! GET INSIDE THE MINDS OF YOUR EMPLOYEES Find out what's really going on inside the hearts and minds of your employees. Our InnerViews interviewing service uses SPHRs and PHRs, certified human resource professionals to probe for the information you really need to know. Exit and Stay Interviews, as well as Why-Didn't-You-Take-Our-Offer Interviews. Call Rosalie Catalano at 937-648-1918 or read more at: http://www.hermangroup.com/retentionconnection/exit_interviews.html. To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web: http://www.hermangroup.com/alert/archive_9-24-2008.html. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? 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