This Week's Herman Trend Alert Navigating the Next Year

The Herman Trend Alert June 18, 2008 The Near-Term Future of Air Travel United States citizens are beginning to avoid air travel in significant numbers. This fact is in part responsible for the airlines announcing substantial cutbacks in service to a wide variety of US cities. Across the globe, airlines that expected to earn sizeable profits this year will instead have gigantic losses. . . in the billions. The secretary general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Giovanni Bisignani recently said, "The industry is in crisis, perhaps the biggest crisis we have ever faced." (IATA members account for over 90 percent of air travel worldwide.) According to a survey commissioned by the Travel Industry Association (TIA), US citizens are looking for ways to stay away from air travel because of higher fares, security hassles, and chronic schedule and service disruptions. Ask frequent flyers and they will tell you that not only is air travel not "fun" anymore, but it is a downright chore. The member airlines of the IATA face losses of USD$2.3 billion in 2008, due to sky high fuel costs. Moreover, it was only a few weeks ago that the organization forecast profits of USD$4.5 billion (2.9 billion euros) for the industry. However, oil prices topping USD$135 a barrel turned their profit projections into huge losses. After recovering from the enormous losses resulting from the 2001 September 11 attacks (about USD$40 billion), the industry finally posted profits of USD$5.6 billion dollars last year. The TIA study found that travelers avoided 41 million trips over the past few months. These trips cost the US economy USD$26.5 billion over the past year, including lost ticket sales and travel-related business expenses, and lost tax revenue. These reductions in trips, the increasing fuel costs, and the slowing US economy are the basis for virtually all of the US airlines decreasing their numbers of flights, even to popular vacation destinations like Honolulu, Las Vegas, and Orlando. Expect more cuts and service disruptions, as airlines get rid of experienced employees to hire lower cost contractors in a misguided effort to reduce expenses. These reductions in service will also affect the attractiveness of US destinations to foreign tourists. © Copyright 1998-2008 by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc." RESOLVE TO ADDRESS EMPLOYEE TURNOVER IN 2009 If you knew just how much money turnover is costing your company, you would have handled it ages ago! Turnover costs A LOT and it comes right off the bottom line. Let The Herman Group and its team of very experienced consultants help you address your turnover issues right away. We have an impressive track record and stand ready to help you. Call Carol at 800-227-3566; international, call 336-210-3547 for a no-obligation conference call. EMPLOYEE RETENTION BEGINS WITH GOOD SELECTION If you are not using pre-employment assessments, you are flying without radar---not very smart in today's highly competitive environment. Let us help you better understand your candidates and your employees. In less than 30 minutes, you will know if they can do the job (abilities); their work behaviors, even their personality and attitudes (like integrity & ethics), and those can't be trained. It's very cost effective, too! For more information, contact Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail assessments@hermangroup.com. Validated for many countries and cultures. We offer in-depth help with job descriptions, too! GET INSIDE THE MINDS OF YOUR EMPLOYEES Find out what's really going on inside the hearts and minds of your employees. Our InnerViews interviewing service uses SPHRs and PHRs, certified human resource professionals to probe for the information you really need to know. Exit and Stay Interviews, as well as Why-Didn't-You-Take-Our-Offer Interviews. Call Rosalie Catalano at 937-648-1918 or read more at: http://www.hermangroup.com/retentionconnection/exit_interviews.html. To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web: http://www.hermangroup.com/alert/archive_9-24-2008.html. Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers. New subscribers are welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is received by over 30,000 subscribers in 78 countries, in addition to other websites and printed magazines. Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Trend Alert service. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert. Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert View this week's Herman Trend Alert Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

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